What changed after the link spam updates.
Penguin folded into the core algorithm in 2016, and the link spam updates from December 2022 onward completed a shift in enforcement philosophy. SpamBrain, Google's machine-learning spam system, now identifies unnatural links and neutralizes them so they pass no value, mostly without telling anyone. Penalties still exist, but they are no longer the main deterrent. The main deterrent is futility: gray-hat links increasingly just stop counting.
That moves the bar. The question is no longer "will this get me penalized" but "will Google count this at all," and the only reliable yes is a link with genuine editorial merit behind it.